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Worst emissions scenario 'exceedingly unlikely'

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Worst emissions scenario 'exceedingly unlikely'

The worst-case scenario for emissions of CO2 this century is no longer plausible, say researchers. Click here to read the full BBC story. 

Referred to as "business as usual", the scenario assumes a 500% increase in the use of coal, which is now considered unlikely.

Climate models suggest that this level of carbon could see warming of up to 6C by 2100, with severe impacts.

Researchers say that on current trends, a rise in temperatures of around 3C is far more likely.

The authors point out that a 3C rise would be a global average and that many parts of the world such as the Arctic would likely warm by much more than that.

"You having a world where the coral reefs are largely wiped out at three degrees warming, you're having a world where combined with deforestation, there's a real high risk of the Amazon rainforest turning into more of a savannah type ecosystem in the long run," said author Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute in California.

Experts believe that at 3C, the Arctic sea-ice would be mostly gone in the summer with devastating consequences. It could cause large scale melting of permafrost, It could destabilise roads and houses in the far north and there's increasing damage to crop yields.

"There's a lot of real impacts with three degrees that we can't sweep away. And there's a non-trivial risk that climate sensitivity is four degrees instead of three."

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